EVENING UPDATE: Complex Mid-Atlantic Snowstorm: FRI NIGHT - SAT

WINTER STORM WATCH: NYC, Long Island, and Bergen, Hudon, Union and Essex counties in NJ
WINTER STORM WARNING: In NJ, Morris County and points south...
BLIZZARD WARNING: Ocean, Atlantic, Cumberland, Cape May, and Eastern Burlington Counties in NJ

This blog is certainly starting off with a bang!

We're dealing with what will definitely be a major snow storm for parts of Virginia, Pennslyvania, New Jersey and Washington DC. The exact track and timing of this storm will dictate just how much snow we see especially in places like New York City, Northern New Jersey and Long Island. If you live 20 to 30 miles north of NYC, you will almost definitely not be seeing much from this system.

Here's what we have. One area of low pressure pushing north into Michigan, while a secondary low develops and rides the eastern seaboard. This low is full of moisture from the Gulf and has dropped already several inches of rain across the deep south. This secondary low will draw from some of the moisture from the original low now pushing north, northeast and bomb out off the coast just north of Virginia early Saturday.

Now, if you understand up to that point, there's another element affecting the projected storm totals for this system. There is a Canadian blocking area of high pressure that's going to only allow the storm to get "so far" north. The models, NAM and GFS, are clearly showing a sharp cutoff to the snowfall just north of New York City, with the regional NAM model as of the 18z run showing the cutoff over Long Island - further south than it was showing in earlier runs. The 18z NAM isn't going to be a favorite for snow lovers on Long Island, in NYC and parts of New Jersey. The 18z GFS model shows the cutoff line still north of NYC and provides the NYC area with a QPF of anywhere from .25-1" of liquid. With a snowfall ratio around 15 to 1, that equates to roughly 5" to 15" of snow - a wide range. As always, you can't put a great deal of importance on solely the forecast models because they don't know exactly what will happen - no one does.

We're at a point where we'll have to watch the next few runs and then it becomes nowcasting - watching the radar, checking local observations, etc... This storm is going to be down to the wire and any jog north or south as little as 20 miles will have a major impact on storm totals.

Right now, this is what I'm going with:

North of NYC: 1" - 2"
Northern Jersey, NYC, Long Island: 4" - 8"
Southern Jersey, Philly, D.C.: 15" - 20"

Let's see what happens - this is definitely an interesting storm!